the health wealth effect

The Wealth Effect works like this: an increase in someone’s net worth has a strong correlation to an increase in their spending habits even if their incomes remain unchanged.

The Health-Wealth Effect works like this: an increase in someone’s obesity level has a strong correlation to a decrease in his or her potential career earnings, higher healthcare costs and lower net worth.

FT_13.11.12_Obesity_640px

Dual Standards

After studying the CEO’s of Fortune 1000 companies, Michigan State University professor Mark Roehling concluded the different results for women than for men suggest weight bias may contribute to the glass ceiling on the advancement of women to the top levels of management. “The results suggest that while being obese limits career opportunities of both women and men, being ‘merely overweight’ harms only female executives. This pattern of findings is consistent with previous research indicating that, at least among white Americans, there is a tendency to hold women to harsher weight standards.”

Obese women are also half as likely to attend college, 20% less likely to get married and seven times more likely to experience illness, depression or death from being overweight.

Chicken or the Egg

Does someone weight more because they are poorer or are they poorer because they weight more?

Dan Engber in a Slate Magazine article wrote, “Unpacking this causality amounts to untying a Gordian Knot. Sickness, poverty and obesity are spun together in a dense web of reciprocal causality. Anyone who’s fat is more likely to be poor and sick. Anyone who’s poor is more likely to be fat and sick. And anyone who’s sick is more likely to be poor and fat.”

In short, poverty might make some people obese, but obesity definitely makes many people poorer.

Income

Executives with larger waistlines and higher body-mass index readings tend to be perceived as less effective in the workplace, both in performance and interpersonal relationships according to data compiled by the Center for Creative Leadership. Barry Posner, a leadership professor at Santa Clara University, says he can’t name a single overweight Fortune 500 CEO. “We have stereotypes about fat so when we see a senior executive who’s overweight, our initial reaction isn’t positive.”

Health Care

According to the National Bureau of Economic Research, medical costs for weight related diseases is estimated to be $190 billion annually—or 20 percent of national health-care spending,

Stamina

“Because the demands of leadership can be quite strenuous, the physical aspects are just as important as everything else,” says Sharon McDowell-Larson, an exercise physiologist who runs an executive fitness program for the nonprofit Center for Creative Leadership. “People who are obese may not have the energy or stamina that is necessary to successfully run a business all day everyday.”

Mental Bandwidth

Research by the American Journal of Public Health found the very condition of poverty tends to focus the mind on immediate goals, which makes non-essential tasks, such as dieting and exercising, all but impossible.

No Simple Solutions

John Cawley, a reporter with the National Bureau of Economic Research introduced a workplace wellness program where colleagues deposited money and stood to receive payments for their weight loss. More than two-thirds of the participants dropped out within a year and the results showed practically no positive effect. The third of the participants that did stay in for the full year had lost, on average, just two pounds more than the control group. He added “There are also prescription and over-the-counter solutions but there is very little, if any evidence suggesting that [weight loss] products are effective and some have potentially fatal side effects.”

every job in america in one graph

All The Jobs, By Occupationsource: Source: NPR

infographic - 10 powerful body language tips

10 Body Language Tips Every Speaker Must Know (Infographic)

 

infographic - how to be productive

http://www.entrepreneur.com/dbimages/article/1386958356-get-done-35-habits-most-productive-people-infographic.jpg

source: Entrepreneur.com

Is there a peak years of experience for advisors

Two events happened last month that made me question if there is a peak years of experience for advisors.

The first one was my sister was due to have her baby the weekend after Thanksgiving but she hoped she would be able to hold off until that Monday. She believed only the doctors who recently graduated from medical school had to work on holidays and she wanted “someone with experience in case something went wrong.”

The second one was when Magnus Carlsen, age 22, defeated Viswanathan Anand to become the world chess champion. In a New Yorker article about the match, the author states Anand “at nearly 44 years old was getting old for top-level chess.”

I have no doubt both the new world chess champion and the new doctor put in their 10,000 hours of studying and practice in their respective fields yet why does youth inspire confidence in one instance yet have the opposite impact in another?

I believe it has to do with the speed of change and the price of failure.

Some industries, such as IT, evolve so rapidly that your years of experience fixing yesterday’s problems (Commodore 64) are meaningless to me today (iPad).

Other industries, such as medical and financial, experience tends to inspire confidence because if things go wrong the results can be severe.

Is there, however, a peak years of experience?

I believe I am a better investor now because I have lived through market highs and lows and seen how people reacted than I was when I first graduated from college and had only read about bubbles and panics.

I also know I have hesitated buying certain stocks and bonds because I remember when they were priced much lower only to watch them go up even higher.

What does FedEx and UPS average daily shipping volume say about the economy?

This chart shows the average daily package volume (in millions) for UPS as well as the year-over-year percentage change. Note: UPS reports their data using a traditional calendar quarter system.

2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007
Q4 18.8 2.7% 18.3 3.4% 17.7 2.3% 17.3 0.0% 17.3 -2.3% 17.7
Q3 15.5 2.6% 15.1 0.7% 15.0 4.9% 14.3 -4.0% 14.9 -2.6% 15.3
Q2 15.4 3.4% 14.9 0.7% 14.8 3.5% 14.3 -4.7% 15.0 0.0% 15.0
Q1 16.2 3.8% 15.6 4.0% 15.0 0.7% 14.9 2.8% 14.5 -4.0% 15.1 0.0% 15.1
Total 65.3 63.3 62.4 60.4 62.3 63.1
 

These numbers have a very strong correlation in time and direction with Total Non-Farm Private Payrolls as well as the S&P 500 Stock Index.

 

Year-over-Year percentage change in Total Non-Farm Private Payrolls

2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007
Q4 1.5% 1.8% 1.0% -2.6% -3.7% 0.5%
Q3 1.6% 1.5% 0.6% -4.2% -2.0% 0.9%
Q2 1.7% 1.4% 0.0% -4.9% -0.7% 1.0%
Q1 1.6% 1.7% 1.0% -0.8% -4.7% -0.1% 1.2%

 

Year-over-Year percentage change in the S&P 500 Stock Index

2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007
Q4 12.2% 3.6% 15.9% 39.1% -40.2% -5.2%
Q3 15.7% 1.7% 10.6% 19.4% -39.0% 7.7%
Q2 14.3% 11.8% 10.1% -20.5% -15.9% 15.6%
Q1 19.2% 2.4% 16.2% 27.1% -34.9% -8.4% 16.9%

 

FedEx’s average daily package volume also tracks the economy, however, because they use a May 31st year end, the quarters don’t line up quite as nicely.

This chart shows the average daily package volume (in thousands) for FedEx as well as year over year percentage change.

 
2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007
Q4 3,903 9.6% 3,561 -0.6% 3,583 2.0% 3,514 4.5% 3,362 -3.4% 3,481 -1.4% 3,531
Q3 4,045 8.3% 3,735 1.1% 3,696 3.0% 3,587 4.4% 3,437 -4.6% 3,603 2.8% 3,506
Q2 4,019 9.0% 3,686 1.7% 3,626 4.0% 3,485 4.3% 3,340 -6.9% 3,587 7.8% 3,328
Q1 3,661 3.2% 3,547 0.6% 3,527 5.7% 3,336 -0.8% 3,362 -3.3% 3,476 7.5% 3,234
Total 15,628 14,529 14,432 13,922 13,501 14,147 13,599

Sources: UPS.com, Fedex.com, StLouisFed.org

 

when was your last financial fire drill?

Near the jogging path I use there is a three story concrete building where I often see firefighters training fighting real fires. Fires that even from the safe distance of the jogging path put out some intense heat yet I’ve never seen anyone running around panicking and everyone seemed to know what they had to do.

It’s not that firefighters are crazy and don’t recognize the danger, it’s that they’ve been trained and trained on what to do in case of emergencies much like other professionals are required to do whose job function may expose them to extremely stressful situations such as doctors, nurses, police, armed forces, airplane pilots and flight attendants.

I would add “investor” to the list of professions that also must be able to deal with unexpected and sometimes disastrous surprises.

By “investor” I’m not just referring to the Gordon Geckos or Warren Buffets of the world, but also people like you and me who are just saving for our retirement or our kids’ college education.

What would you do in case of a financial emergency?

Would you panic or would already have plan and rehearsed what to do?

What my wife and I do is periodically rank our upcoming spending items (house payment, vacation, kids’ sports, etc.) in terms of importance so if our incomes fall we know what to cut first. This way it is a discussion and not a high-stress-I-can’t-believe-this-happened-to-us-fight-or-flight reaction.

Same goes for our investments. We’ve seen our portfolio go up down and all around but I’ve found it’s much harder to prioritize which investments should be sold AFTER they’ve declined then before.

an extreme example of confirmation bias

Confirmation bias happens when we either disregard facts that contradict our position or we fail to seek out information that would make us change our point of view.

An extreme example of confirmation bias is early testing for Huntington’s Disease.

Huntington’s Disease (HD) is a degenerative neurological disorder with no known cure that affects around 30,000 people in the U.S. Onset begins around age 40, with a life expectancy of around age 60 and a healthy life expectancy of 10 years fewer than that.

Individuals with one parent with HD have a 50% chance of inheriting the disease.

Since 1993 an inexpensive test has been available to determine with certainty if at-risk individuals will develop HD yet historically only between 5-7% of at-risk individuals opted to be tested.[1]

Researchers theorize the reason behind these extremely low testing numbers is confirmation bias. Taking the test would require individuals to seek out information that might change how they imagine their future will be.

If an individual chooses to test, they cannot “unlearn” their health status and therefore a significant “cost” of testing is the loss of the option to believe one is healthy regardless of their true state.[2]

What confirmation biases do you have?

 



[1] Shoulson and Young 2011

[2] Optimal Expectations and Limited Medical Testing. Oster, Shoulson and Dorsey 2013

is it safe to invest now?

Since the Dow Jones Industrial Average set a new record, I’ve had several friends and customers ask me “Is it safe to invest now?” and “Should I sell now since the stock market is at all time highs?”

My answer is usually “Not everything is at an all time high.”

FRED Graph

This chart shows the S&P 500 Stock Index (red line, right side) and Total Retail and Food Service Sales (blue line, left side). Retail and Food Sales is and has been for almost two years setting new record highs and the S&P 500 Stock Index is knocking on its previous record.

FRED Graph

This chart shows Light Weight Vehicle Sales (blue line, left side) and Total Population (red line, right side). Car and truck sales are up dramatically from the lows of 2009 but even after three years of growth, they still haven’t set new records even though there are 28 million more people now than the previous peak car sales of 2002.

FRED Graph

This chart shows Commercial and Industrial Loans (blue line, left side) and Total Private Employment (red line, right side).

Neither Commercial and Industrial Loans (which are typically loans made to small and medium sized companies) nor Private Employment has set new “all time highs”.

FRED Graph

This chart shows the S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index (blue line, left side) and 30 Year Mortgage rates (red line, right side). Home prices are, on average, nowhere close to their previous “all time highs”.

FRED Graph

This chart shows Total Revolving Credit, i.e. credit card balances (blue line, left side) and Household Debt Service Payments as a Percent of Disposable Income (red line, right side). Even though Retail Sales has been setting new all time highs for the past two years, it seems consumers have resisted the urge to load up on credit cards.

Yes, some economic yardsticks such as the Dow Jones Industrial Average and Total Retail and Food Sales are at “all time highs” but I’m not concerned about a potential economic free fall because so many other indicators such as: Private Payrolls, Car and Truck Sales, Home Prices, Credit Card Debt, and Debt Burden are reporting an economy that is steadily improving and furthermore many of these data points are at levels far below where they were when the “bubble popped”.

perceived probability of success and achievement cycle

Goal setting is such an engrained part of our culture that we celebrate it every New Years.

Some of these goals are internally set (save more for retirement, lose weight, be happier, achieve a better work/life balance) and some are externally set (sales target in order to earn bonus).

What intrigues me about my goals is why I was able to be inspired to reach some goals while other goals I gave up before I even started.

The key it turns out was my perceived probability of success. Based on research by David McClelland of Harvard and John Atkinson of the University of Michigan it seems the motivation to achieve a goal is at its peak (100%) when we believe there is about a 50% probability of achieving that goal.

That means:

  • We do not become self motivated toward goal achievement when our perceived probability of success is virtually certain (100%) or virtually impossible (0%)
When you look at the gap that exist between where you are now and where you want to go, you need to have some confidence you can close the gap. McClelland and Atkinson’s research suggests the greatest level of motivation occurs when we perceive a 50% probability of success. Less than that and it’s not worth risking the increased probability of failure. Greater, and it seems to be too easy to be worth the effort.